The peaks and valleys are more extreme, but they tend to oscillate around the 40% (average) level, just as the moving average in the original graph did.
For the years 2009 thru 2011 private debt went negative so the ratio can't be calculated. For the year 2012 private debt contributed about 5% to the new money total before taxes.
For the years that net private debt went negative (debt service exceeded new loans) private debt subtracted from total spending. What a drag!
The point that net private debt plunged drastically and went negative corresponds generally to the time the GFC hit.
Clinton's balanced budgets (or very nearly balanced) occurred in the years 1998 thru 2001. Spending declined drastically between 1992 and 1997, from $340B/year to $103B/year. These years correspond to a marked increase in debt issuance. We had headroom…we used all of that and then some.
That's about when banking policy enabled lending to borrowers that were marginal at best and uncreditworthy at worst…prudent underwriting was abandoned.
We appear to be approaching a stable balance between debt service and incomes…I don't think we're quite there yet but at least debt service isn't dragging the economy down any longer. This doesn't mean borrowing will necessarily accelerate.
Private debt (mainly households) can drive the economy…into recession.
It's all on public spending from here on out.